Profitable 2 Year Old Horse Racing Strategies. Part 4. Sireage, Bloodstock, Class and System Rules for Juvenile Flat Racing.

Sireage

In so many 2 year old races and maidens you will find a lot of young horses being run for the 1st time.

How do you even attempt to analyze the potential form of such horses and whether you should include them in your field or not.

The answer is of course partly to look for news and sharp movement in the SP pre race.

But this isn't enough. If you are going to develop consistent profitability nothing can be left to chance.

The answer comes in the form of bloodstock analysis. When I discuss Sireage with novice punters they cannot believe that the Sireage of a horse can have such an affect on a horse's performance until I show them my logs and spreadsheets.

It is evident in the statistics and these statistics cannot be denied.

Top 25 Stallions: Class

2 year olds sired by a select band of 25 stallions in Europe perform up to 400% better than the best of the rest.

I don't have to prove it - you can check the data for yourselves. Go to the racing post main website:

• Bloodstock,
• Leading lists,
• Top sires of 2 year olds,
• Alter the filters to examine the win rates and prize money achieved by the offspring of these stallions.

Now examine the top 25 stallions in the list.

You can of course reduce this list even further and concentrate on offspring of the top 10 or the top 5 stallions.

Obviously you will achieve better win percentage results using only the strongest sires, but fewer horses in your field and probably fewer races to bet in.

You should concentrate particularly on:

• total prize money.
• percentage winners.

These filters give meaningful relationships in terms of the quality of race that the horses have been used in previously.

There is no substitute for actual results and how much a horse is worth, i.e. the class.

Here is a further selection of stats that you can incorporate into your analysis when trying to reduce a field.

2 year old runners up in maidens. Position in Last Race

• 2nd, Bets 4137, 42% wins
• 3rd, Bets 2382, 37% wins
• 4th, Bets 1515, 37% wins
• 5th, Bets 929, 32% wins
• 6th, Bets 637, 34% wins
• 7th Bets 1153, 36% wins

Record the number of lengths that the 2nd horse beat the 3rd horse by in your spreadsheets.

If a horse is a runner up but beats the 3rd horse by 5 lengths, then it will still be in a maiden race next time out.

The fact that it beat the other runners by such a large margin may go unnoticed by the press and pundits.

And, obviously the horse that beat it will have moved onto non maidens. Include it in your field using a danger horse wager recovery strategy as outlined above.

2 year old unraced favourites

Sometimes a 2 year old can start as favourite, even though it has never been raced.

This may be due to sireage, trainers, owners, gallops etc but the reality is that it is still rare for an unraced horse to go straight out and win while still green.

In these races you will find it profitable to analyse whether the race favourite is actually worth taking on and laying.

Staying 2 year olds that run on

If a 2 year old fails to win its first race at 5f or 6f but finishes well and is "challenging" or "running on" then it is often stepped up to 7f on its 2nd race.

It is extremely likely to do well in these circumstances and you should definitely include it in the field as a contender.

Rules for 2 year olds betting

Overall we can see that specializing in juveniles can be an extremely profitable strategy when combined with careful professional analysis.

Anytime between May and September you will find that good 2 year olds can hit a winning streak.

Once it has reached two consecutive wins your strategy should be to include this horse and the next 2 favourites at SP, only in Dutches, where the going is firm or better.

The field must be less than 12.

Because the field will be so massively reduced the liability from uncovered horses is also hugely reduced.

The formula is very simple, but you will find up to 100 race meetings matching these criteria between May and September and you can achieve up to 80% strike rate Dutching these races.

Mike J Davies is a Horse Racing Expert, LSE Day trader (Spreads and Finance),

and a Betfair Trader and Advisor.

Don't Waste Your Money, Bet Sensibly. Professional, Profitable Horse Racing Strategies =>

http://www.Betfair-Trade.com